Trump and the Racial Vote

Was race a major factor? The table shows the voting percentages in the last three presidential elections for four racial-ethnic groups:

Thought 1:

White support for the Republican candidate was stable across the three elections (55, 59, 58). But white support for the Democratic candidate declined (43, 39, 37).

My takeaway: Trump seems not to have gained white support overall, but Clinton’s loss of white support was a significant factor.

Thought 2:

White support for Obama’s first campaign was six points higher than for Clinton’s (43 versus 37).

My takeaway: For white voters considering voting Democratic, the whiteness or the blackness of Obama and Clinton was not the most significant factor. Again, Clinton seems to have lost the support of whites.

Thought 3:

African-American support for Trump was twice McCain’s and fifty percent higher than Romney’s (8 versus 4 and 6).

My takeaway: Non-racial factors were more important to African-American voters in 2016.

Thought 4:

Trump’s support from Latinos was midway between that of McCain and Romney (29 versus 31 and 27).

My takeaway: Trump’s remarks about Mexicans do not seem to have affected much the voting of those Latinos presupposed to vote Republican.

Thought 5:

White support for Obama’s first campaign was six points higher than for Clinton’s (43 versus 37), and African-American support for Obama’s first campaign was seven percentage points higher than Clinton’s (95 versus 88).

My takeaway: Both whites and blacks preferred Obama to Clinton by a roughly equal amount (6 and 7).

Overall takeaway: Trump’s racial attitudes are bad, but voters in all groups seem to be less racial in their thinking than much of the pre- and post-election commentary suggests. I remind myself, though, that the above racial categories are crude groupings, and that more useful will be fine-grained sub-categories, all the way down to each unique individual.

If not race, then what was most decisive? Consider these numbers:

In 2016, Clinton received about 59.9 million votes, while Trump received about 59.7 million votes.
But in 2008, Obama received about 69.5 million votes, while McCain got about 59.9 million votes

The McCain/Trump vote totals are almost identical — but Obama got about 10 million more votes than Clinton. To put it bluntly, Clinton drove away about 10 million voters.

Trump did not so much win the election as Clinton lost it badly.

Sources:

2008 and 2012 data from Cornell University’s Roper Center (http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/).

2016 data from The New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/11/08/us/politics/election-exit-polls.html).